The yuan fixing drifts stronger than models expect for a ninth session
The daily reference rate has come in above consensus every day for two weeks. That is a signal, and it is meant to be read.
The People Bank of China set the daily yuan reference rate stronger than the average forecast for a ninth consecutive session, the longest such run this year.
The fixing is not a market price. It is set each morning by the central bank, and the currency is permitted to trade within a band of two percent either side of it. A persistent gap between the fixing and what models predict is one of the clearest policy signals the institution sends.
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