Exchange balances fall to a six-year low, and the usual reading needs a caveat
Fewer coins on exchanges is normally read as reduced selling pressure. Custody changes muddy that considerably.
The quantity of bitcoin held in identified exchange wallets fell to its lowest since 2018. The standard interpretation is that holders are moving coins into self-custody with no intention of selling soon.
That reading was reliable for years. It has become considerably less so, and the reason is the exchange-traded funds.
Why the metric got noisier
Spot ETFs hold their bitcoin with institutional custodians, not on exchanges. Every coin bought by a fund leaves the exchange-wallet count and enters a wallet that most on-chain trackers classify separately, or do not classify at all.
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