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Banknotes from several currencies laid side by side.
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Priya Sharma
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The yen weakens past 150 and the intervention conversation restarts

Officials used the phrase "excessive moves". The market has learned to read the vocabulary quite precisely.

The yen weakened past 150 to the dollar, prompting Japanese officials to describe recent moves as "excessive" and to say they were watching with "a high sense of urgency".

The market treats this vocabulary as a ladder, and it reads it closely because the ladder has been reasonably consistent across episodes.

The escalation ladder

  • "Watching with interest" is routine and means nothing.
  • "Excessive moves" or "one-sided moves" signals discomfort.
  • "High sense of urgency" has historically preceded action by days to weeks.
  • "Will not rule out any options" has been the closest thing to a final warning.

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About the author

Priya Sharma

Currencies and commodities

Priya covers foreign exchange and the Comex complex, with a particular interest in how central bank policy divergence shows up in currency pairs before it shows up anywhere else.

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